Oscar Predications 2011

So Su and I have been making an effort to see all of the Best Picture nominees this year.  Ideally, before the winners are announced (but she doesn’t really care about that; she just wants to see good films).  Anyway, today we saw “The King’s Speech” and I think this allows me to make some predictions.

So I have seen: Black Swan, The Fighter, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, True Grit, and Winter’s Bone.  I have the dvds for Toy Story 3 and Inception, but for (non-)obvious reasons, I don’t think they will do anything interesting from an awards perspective.

Without further ado…

Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech) — It’s a simple as this: the ‘retard’ theory always wins.  Go back to every Best Actor winner and you will notice that the winner always plays some kind of affliction.  Besides that, I think he really made it believable.

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter) — Same theory above applies.  The only real contender is probably John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone).  Not sure why Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech) is even on the list, but does anyone really care that much about the supporting actor?

Best Actress: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right) — I’m taking a bit of a guess here and going with a blue chip talent.  I thought Natalie Portman (Black Swan) and Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)  both did great jobs, but I don’t see how they could pull it out.

Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) — She actually brought the movie out successfully.  No rip on Jeff Bridges, but she was the star.  I don’t think either of ‘The Fighter’ chicks did anything special.  That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me if Melissa Leo (The Fighter) got the nod just because she was so creepy as a mother.

Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 3 — I actually saw “How to Train Your Dragon” and thought it was great; however, I suspect the Toy Story juggernaut cannot be stopped.

Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland — I’ve seen all of these minus what I already listed.  This movie was just plain beautiful.

Cinematography: The Social Network — Really tough to decide here.  I feel like Black Swan lived and died on the camera movement too.

Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland — This should win on originality alone.  I don’t see how rehashing western(True Grit) or early 20th century clothing (Speech) should win anything.

Best Director: Black Swan — I could see this going many ways, but I really think the director got it done here.  He really made the movie flow and got the best out of the cast.

Film Editing: 127 Hours — The integration of the flash backs and the progression of the understanding of the main character is perfect.

Best Picture: Black Swan — This is (yet again) another tough decision.  I think that The Social Network could win here too.  I find it amusing that Toy Story 3 made this list; it has no chance of winning.

Writing (adapted screenplay): The Social Network — the writing is what makes this movie.

That’s all.  I don’t really have anything more to contribute in the other categories.

Updated: On request, added the relevant movies where not otherwise listed.

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